JAWRA Blog

In the Great Oil Spill of 2010 we have yet another example of society just not getting it about risk. Parse through a series of Environmental Impact Statements and supporting documentation on oil leasing, and it’s perfectly clear a big spill was only a matter of time. In 1983, the U.S. Minerals Management Services’ own risk analysis computed a 0.76 probability of at least one spill larger than 10,000 barrels from platforms on existing U.S. leases in the Gulf of Mexico. Mexico had its own big spill in 1979. So, why is everybody surprised and shocked this one happened?

The oil industry takes considerable pains to prevent dangerous and costly accidents. After all, even without a spill, getting 11 people killed and losing a $300 million rig is not exactly a career move. The residual risk is the inevitable tradeoff we incur to gain the benefits of oil. And, not drilling won’t work if the alternative is to import oil via tankers which carry even higher risks. Basically, if you want the oil, you take the risk. We can only reduce the risk by using less oil, but nobody wants to hear that.

The “Cleopatra Complex” (Queen of de Nile) we see with oil isn’t all that different from how the public perceives hydrologic risks. A (seemingly) theoretical risk sometime in the future just doesn’t compare with pressing needs of today. We knew it was only a matter of time before a hurricane drowned New Orleans. The Mississippi River will repeat its 1993 flood, or worse. And, the good folks in Fargo will again and again celebrate spring by hauling sandbags to the banks of the Red River of the North.

Risk is not just a number, it is a very real chance of something bad happening. But, risk clearly is something people do not understand intuitively. It’s time for us scientists to raise our voices and help the public “get real” about risk.