A recent article in the Washington Post, “As Fairfax updates flood plain map, residents must buy new insurance,” had an interesting connection to our 2010 Boggess Award winner. (See my August 4th posting.) Lauren A. Patterson and Martin W. Doyle, in their paper, “Assessing Effectiveness of National Flood Policy Through Spatiotemporal Monitoring of Socioeconomic Exposure,” note a significant increase in flood exposure immediately outside the 100-year floodplain. This is exactly the type of boundary affected by the new maps.
The revised maps, drawing upon new technology and better or updated data, move some homes in or out of the designated floodplain. Some residents are upset they now have to purchase flood insurance, others relieved they no longer have to. The relief or complaining seems to reflect a lack of understanding, as if some designated line on a map is going to hold back a flood. Flooding risk typically is a continuum, so the 101-year floodplain is only marginally safer than the 100-year floodplain. If I need a careful survey to determine whether my house is in or out, I’m still buying flood insurance!
Protecting the 100-year floodplain had focused our societal efforts on locations most vulnerable to flooding. However, it may be giving us an unrealistic sense of security against larger floods.
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