Feb

24

Bob Hirsch Opines on Climate and Water Resources, Part 1: Background

February 24, 2009 | Posted by Michael "Aquadoc" Campana
2 Comments

I am back in DC again for the National Institutes of Water Resources (NIWR) annual meeting and “Capitol Hill crawl’ to exercise our First Amendment rights. If we tap into some of that thar ’stimulus’ money – well, that’d be just dandy.

Faithful readers of my this and my WaterWired blogs know that in my previous two NIWR visits, I posted about the “water words of wisdom’ from Dr. Robert (Bob) Hirsch of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), who had addressed  the group during those visits. You can read my 2007 and 2008 reports.

Bob is no longer serving in an administrative capacity, having returned to research last spring, so his presentation was more specific this year. He dealt primarily with the climate change aspects of water resources. I think you’ll find his comments off the beaten track.

Bob came prepared for me – as I approached him to obtain his permission to blog his comments, he smiled and told me he assumed as much and gave me a paper copy of what he said. So now I have so much material that I will report it in two separate posts.  

Bob opened by referring to the Milly et al. (2008) paper (he was a co-author) dealing with the ‘demise’ of stationarity and repeated two salient points from that work:

  1. Modeling should be used to synthesize observations; it can never replace them.
  2. In a nonstationary world, continuity of observations is crucial.

Number two is especially important these days; it says we need to keep making observations – streamflow, precipitation, ground water levels, etc. Data collection programs are often the first ones to get axed in tight financial times. Guess what Bob and many of us are worried about?

He then described what the data suggest vis-a-vis climate change and water resources:

  1. Flow timing shifts in areas where snow has been significant.
  2. Predominantly, there have been increases in low streamflows and average streamflows.
  3. Changes in flooding have been very unclear.
  4. Changes in ground water recharge have been very unclear.

Bob then referred to comments made by Ralph Keeling from an article in Science [2008, pp. 1771-1772]. Ralph Keeling is the son of  Dave Keeling, responsible for the Mauna Loa CO2 curve, arguably the most important climate data we have today. Here is what Ralph said:

A continuing challenge to long-term Earth observations is the prejudice against science that is not directly aimed at hypothesis testing [emboldening mine]. At a time when the planet is being propelled by human action… We cannot afford such a rigid view of the scientific enterprise.

The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet is to measure it and this means tracking changes decade after decade, and poring over the records.

 Doesn’t sound very sexy, does it?

Okay, so what does all this stuff mean, especially to water mangers, who must actually manage water reources in the face of climate change? There are two emerging schools of thought emerging:

  1. Search for ‘actionable science’
  2. Adapt to uncertainty

So, class, we’ll pick up from this point tomorrow.

To be continued…

“Today we’re seeing that climate change is about more than a few unseasonably mild winters or hot summers. It’s about the chain of natural catastrophes and devastating weather patterns that global warming is beginning to set off around the world.. the frequency and intensity of which are breaking records thousands of years old.” – President Barack Obama

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Comments

2 Comments so far

  1. Bob Hirsch Opines on Climate Change and Water Resources, Part 2: Actionable Science, Adaptation, Advice : AWRA Water Blog on February 25, 2009 2:44 am

    [...] Bob Hirsch Opines on Climate and Water Resources, Part 1: Background [...]

  2. tommy on March 2, 2009 2:46 pm

    It seems from the way this is written that some are resisting change in procedures despite their desperate need.If it means measuring the height of the resevior every day and measuring the rain fall in 200 locations so be it.Everyone must work together in order to save water and see how it can be better used and if needed shared out.If you eat food from other states you may have to share your water so the food can be grown.Change must come before its too late

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