Feb
25
Bob Hirsch Opines on Climate Change and Water Resources, Part 2: Actionable Science, Adaptation, Advice
February 25, 2009 | Posted by Michael "Aquadoc" Campana
2 Comments
Yesterday I posted Part 1 of this two-parter in which Bob Hirsch left us with two thoughts:
1) search for actionable science and 2) adapt to uncertainty.
Actionable Science
So what is ‘actionable science’? Bob gave these three quotes:
Data analysis, and forecasts that are sufficiently predictive, accepted, and understandable to support decision-making, including capital investment decision making. — David Behar, San Francsico Public Utilities Commission and Staff Chair, Water Utility Climate Alliance.
Water managers should take the initiative to clearly communicate their needs for applied science to the climate research community, and must seek opportunities to guide hydroclimate research in directions that will support real-world problem solving — Western Governors’ Association
In order to be actionable, an issue has to be well-defined and climate change is not…There is insufficient coordination among the various groups conducting the studies…If we are to achieve the level of predictiability necessary to spur action by the conservative water industry, the research simply must improve.– Patricia Mulroy, Southern Nevada Water Authority, Diving in the Deep End
Bob noted that Mulroy called for the President to develop a strategy to combine research efforts, now diffused through multiple federal agencies, into a single, Los Alamos-type center.
We both think that’s not a great idea. I would also add that much of the relevant research occurs in university settings. I do agree that better coordination is desirable, but I disagree that a Los Alamos-type approach (or Manhattan Project, if you will) will necessarily produce ‘actionable science’.
Adapt to Uncertainty
Okay so what about adaptation?
How about a seven step program from Marc Waage of Denver Water and the Water Utility Climate Alliance?
- Deny uncertainty
- Debate uncertainty
- Investigate uncertainty
- Attempt to reduce uncertainty
- Accept uncertainty
- Plan for uncertainty
- Adapt to uncertainty
Bob then mentioned USGS Circular 1331, authored by four federal agencies: Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective.
Bob’s Final Thoughts for Managers
- Keep monitoring
- Explore the data
- Be prepared for surprises
- Adapt to uncertainty, it won’t go away
- Consider all of the sources of uncertainty
- Focus on flexibility and regional collaboration
Bob’s Final Thoughts for Universities
- Keep your eye on all the major change drivers, not just climate
- Improve understanding of the determinants of water uses and impacts of water use (agriculture)
- New planning paradigm – hydro, statistics, operations research, political science, law economics
- Describe the changing world
Bob then provided some examples of (1) – major drivers of change important to water planning over the next several decades:
- Ground water depletion
- Nutrient use and management
- Urban growth and choices of landscape design
- Public concern and legal requirements for ecosystem preservation or restoration
- Energy production alternatives and greenhouse gas mitigation strategies
- Thermal-electric
- Biofuels
- Coal-bed and deep methane sources
- Geosequestration of CO2
- Climate change
Planning and management paradigms must be adjusted based on the following:
- Adaptation to many types of change, not just climate
- Uncertainty in several of the areas of change is unlikely to go away any time soon – this includes climate change.
- Substantial attention to diversification of supplies, regional cooperation, and flexibility
- Better understanding of the determinants of water use is crucial - this includes undertsanding the roles of pricing, education and technology transfer, operation of water markets, and the related legal systems. Coming to grips with the constitutional question, ‘Is water an article of interstate commerce?’ has significant bearing on the future of water.
The university community has a potentially large role to play in helping the water planning and management community by developing new approaches that move away from a stationary paradigm to one in which adaptation to uncertanty is a constant.
Well said, Dr. Hisrch.
“The only books that separate ground water and surface water are our law books.” – Duane Smith, Executive Director, Oklahoma Water Resources Board
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After reading both pieces of the blog it seems to be agreed that research is needed in to an uncertain future.So in essence prepare for what is likely to happen but also prepare for what might happen.As well as drought be prepared for storms,be prepared for freak weather and then be prepared to utilise the extra rain or snow.
Also more has to be done in deciding the the water priorities ,wether new buildings can be built with the water avaidible to supply them or not.Also as water supplies for the buildings you must consider fire fighting abilities in these areas,will there be the water and the water pressure in an emergency.
[...] Bob Hirsch Opines on Climate Change and Water Resources, Part 2: Actionable Science, Adaptation, Adv… Yesterday I posted Part 1 of this two-parter in which… [...]